In the fourth quarter of 2024, Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.84 percent year over year in real terms, which was better than the 3.46 percent growth in the same period of 2023 and the previous quarter.
The services sector, which grew by 5.37 percent and contributed 57.38 percent to the nation’s total GDP, was the main driver of the growth, according to the most recent GDP data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
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The report read, “Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.84 percent (year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2024. This growth rate is higher than the 3.46 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2024 growth rate (approximately 3.46 percent).”
“The performance of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 5.37 percent and contributed 57.38 percent to the aggregate GDP.”
Non-oil sector: Telecoms, Financial sector lead GDP growth
The economy’s backbone, the non-oil sector, continued to grow, increasing by 3.96 percent in Q4 2024 compared to 3.07 percent in Q4 2023 and 3.37% in Q3 2024. This sector’s share of the overall GDP increased from 95.30% in Q4 2023 to 95.40 percent.
Financial and Insurance Services, Information and Communication (Telecoms), Agriculture (Crop Production), Trade, and Manufacturing were the main drivers of growth in the non-oil industry.
Positive contributions were also made by the transport industry, especially by road transport.
Oil industry underperforms
Nigeria’s average daily oil production in Q4 2024 was 1.54 million barrels per day (mbpd), which was an improvement over Q3 2024’s 1.47 mbpd but marginally less than the 1.56 mbpd recorded in Q4 2023.
Real GDP growth in the oil sector was 1.48 percent, which was lower than the 5.17 percent growth in Q3 2024 and a significant drop from the 12.11 percent increase reported in Q4 2023.
The sector’s GDP contribution was 4.60 percent, which was much less than the 5.57 percent it contributed in Q3 2024 and down from 4.70 percent in the same time in 2023. But after contracting by -2.22 percent in 2023, the sector expanded by 5.54 percent for the entire year.
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Agricultural sector growth rate declines
In spite of this, the agriculture sector’s growth rate decreased from 2.10 percent in Q4 2023 to a sluggish 1.76 percent.
The industry sector grew by 2.00 percent, which was less than the 3.86 percent growth reported in Q4 2023.
Nigeria’s GDP increased by 3.40 percent during the entire year 2024, up from 2.74 percent in 2023.
Overall GDP for Q4 2024 was N78.37 trillion, representing an 18.91 percent growth from Q4 2023’s total of N65.91 trillion.
Despite the fact that NBS intends to release a revised GDP, it was noted that the Q4 2024 numbers were determined utilising the outdated methodology. It is anticipated that the updated framework will go into effect in Q1 2025.
Sector-by-sector breakdown of non-oil sector contribution to GDP growth
Financial and Insurance Sector: One of the best-performing sectors was financial services, which grew by 27.78 percent in real terms in Q4 2024—a little less than the 29.77 percent growth in Q3 2024. The sector’s GDP contribution increased from 4.95 percent in Q4 2023 to 6.10 percent.
Information & Communication: In Q4 2024, Nigeria’s telecom sector grew by 5.90 percent in real terms, which was marginally less than the 6.32 percent growth in Q4 2023. The sector’s share of the overall GDP increased from 16.66 percent in the same quarter of 2023 to 17 percent in the current quarter.
Trade: Real GDP growth in the trade sector was 1.19 percent, up from 0.65 percent in Q3 2024 but down from 1.40 percent in Q4 2023. It represented 15.11 percent of GDP.
Manufacturing: Real GDP growth in the manufacturing sector increased from 1.38% in Q3 2024 to 1.79 percent. Its GDP proportion, however, decreased to 8.07% from 8.23% in Q4 2023.
Construction: In Q4 2023, the construction industry increased by 2.95 percent in real terms, which is marginally less than 3.70 percent. It contributed 3.44 percent of GDP, which was less than the 3.47 percent it contributed at the same time last year.
Transportation and Storage: After contracting by -29.00 percent in Q4 2023, the transport industry recovered and grew by 18.61 percent in real terms. The sector’s share of the GDP increased to 1.26 percent.
Electricity and Energy: The actual contraction of the electricity, gas and steam industry was -5.04 percent, which was lower than the 6.17 percent contraction in Q4 2023. Its percentage of GDP was 0.49 percent.
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